Interstate migration flows revised upwards

The ABS has released final rebased population estimates for June 2021 based on the 2021 Census.

The final rebased population estimate draws together all outstanding population data available since the preliminary estimates were published to lock in a final population number in June 2021.

The release also revised Net Interstate Migration (NIM) data as part of its five-yearly review of the net interstate migration model used in calculating estimated resident population. The review of the model also sets assumptions for estimating NIM going forward until the 2026 Census.

There were wide variances across the states between the preliminary (2016 Census based) and revised (2021 Census based) estimates of NIM. Outflows from New South Wales and Victoria were revised upwards, while the revisions to net interstate migration into all other states and territories showed improvement:

  • NIM flows for New South Wales and Victoria over June 2016 to June 2022 were revised downward by 18,030 and 35,180 respectively, with an aggregate net inflow from Victoria in this period revised to a net outflow.
  • Although there were year-to-year variations, aggregate NIM for Queensland over 2016-2022 was largely unchanged.
    Revised NIM for South Australia and Northern Territory indicated improvement in the net outflow estimate of 5,671 and 7,886 respectively, while Tasmania’s net inflow was upgraded by 5,487.
  • Previously estimated aggregate net outflows over 2016-2022 from Western Australia and Australian Capital Territory were revised upward by 18,482 and 15,488 respectively to net inflows.

Total movements were also revised upwards. A comparison of preliminary and revised NIM between June 2016 and June 2022 indicates an additional 260,000 interstate movers over the six-year period (2.38 million using 2016-based modelling vs 2.64 million using 2021-based modelling). This variation has largely been concentrated in the under 35-year-old age cohorts, indicating younger adults and families (see chart).

These changes to the NIM estimates go a long way to explaining the intercensal difference, with the rebased population in June 2021 showing lower populations in NSW and VIC, limited changes to the QLD population, and upgrades to the populations of SA, WA, TAS, NT and ACT. From a housing market perspective, they also help to explain the relative performance of their capital city residential markets during and subsequent to the COVID pandemic lockdowns.

Importantly, these revisions provide new benchmarks in setting assumptions for interstate migration for the purposes of undertaking state-based population forecasts. If you are in need of up-to-date population forecasts based on the latest available data, contact Rob (rob.burgess@quantifysi.com.au) or Angie (angie.zigomanis@quantifysi.com.au) at Quantify Strategic Insights.

Growth Areas Bad, Infill Good: Planning’s Perennial Problem

As one of the least affordable housing markets on the globe, Australia’s worsening housing crisis seems to be of little concern to many, who are instead more interested in maintaining a relentless and increasingly tiresome attack on greenfield development. If, as a nation, we are genuine about improving the dire state of housing, then the “growth areas bad, infill good”, mindset, simply needs to stop.

Relative to its established suburbs, Melbourne’s growth areas have more than delivered on their end of the bargain during a decade of unprecedented population growth.

Accommodating vast numbers of people, including many recent migrants who are now arriving in record levels, growth areas have, and continue to serve a basic, societal function at a scale not happening elsewhere: housing the population. In the absence of a considered national population policy, this pattern will continue, whether we like it or not.

Contrary to the perception that greenfield development is little more than low-density, McMansion- riddled sprawl, housing our own version of “Deplorables”, Melbourne’s growth areas are being developed at densities higher than the majority of its established suburbs.

Year after year, the number of new dwellings required in established suburbs, simply fail to be delivered. Despite policy objectives, this is in no small part the result of political folly, sadly coming at the expense of much-needed housing. Across metropolitan Melbourne, there are thousands of well-located Neighbourhood Residential Zoned sites that also happen to be situated within 400 metres of the Principal Public Transport Network (PPTN). How this self-induced dilemma reconciles the protection of neighbourhood character with the objectives of the 20 Minute City will be intriguing to say the least.

Ironically, ineffective infill policy has placed an even greater burden on Melbourne’s growth areas. Providing approximately two-thirds of all new dwellings, the combination of population increase, demographic shifts, and the need for affordable housing, is likely to generate even greater demand for housing in growth areas over the coming years.

Planning for rapid growth is a dynamic process that is reliant on a sophisticated understanding of a range of variables. So long as the system is characterised by ineffective policy, outdated land-use strategies, and an ideological disdain for greenfield development, the housing crisis is here to stay.