Demographics: Migration

Population Update

Posted on by Quantify

A quick snapshot of the March 2023 National Population data release today shows that population growth continues at its furious pace.

  • Australia recorded a record net overseas migration (NOM) inflow of 152,000 in March quarter 2023. This in turn took annual NOM to 454,000 in the year to March 2023, which is a massive 50% above the previous record of around 300,000 back in 2009. Quarterly NOM has now surpassed 100,000 in four of the past five quarters, after never having been above 100,000 prior.
  • Total interstate movements continue to moderate, down by 8% on March 2022 to 94,000, which is also below the immediate pre-COVID levels. Extremely tight rental markets could be reducing housing options and having an impact on population mobility. Queensland and Western Australia continue to experience net inflows. The other states and territories all experienced a net interstate outflow in the quarter, with the outflows from New South Wales and Victoria having eased somewhat over the past couple of years.
  • Births registered in March quarter 2023 have continued at the lower level that emerged after the post-COVID bounce during calendar 2021. Cost of living pressures could potentially see births take another leg down over the next year or two.
  • Meanwhile, deaths have continued at the higher level that emerged in 2022 and remain above the five-year average. The higher deaths could play out for some time due to the limited preventative care that is likely to have taken place through COVID lockdowns.

Australia’s population grew by 563,000 in the year to March 2023 and national population growth is running above 500,000 per annum for the first time in history. Assuming NOM ends above 450,000 in FY2023 and Treasury’s forecast for NOM of 315,000 remains on target for FY2024, Australia will have completed its post-COVID population ‘catch up’ in the space of a mere two-and-a-half years, with population at June 2024 back where it was expected to be prior to onset of the COVID pandemic. The speed of this reversal has left the housing market flat-footed an unable to respond quickly enough with the consequences now being seen in housing rental markets.

For further insight into what this means for population growth and housing markets nationally and across the states, contact Angie Zigomanis at angie.zigomanis@quantifysi.com.au or Rob Burgess at rob.burgess@quantifysi.com.au

Interstate migration flows revised upwards

Posted on by Quantify

The ABS has released final rebased population estimates for June 2021 based on the 2021 Census.

The final rebased population estimate draws together all outstanding population data available since the preliminary estimates were published to lock in a final population number in June 2021.

The release also revised Net Interstate Migration (NIM) data as part of its five-yearly review of the net interstate migration model used in calculating estimated resident population. The review of the model also sets assumptions for estimating NIM going forward until the 2026 Census.

There were wide variances across the states between the preliminary (2016 Census based) and revised (2021 Census based) estimates of NIM. Outflows from New South Wales and Victoria were revised upwards, while the revisions to net interstate migration into all other states and territories showed improvement:

  • NIM flows for New South Wales and Victoria over June 2016 to June 2022 were revised downward by 18,030 and 35,180 respectively, with an aggregate net inflow from Victoria in this period revised to a net outflow.
  • Although there were year-to-year variations, aggregate NIM for Queensland over 2016-2022 was largely unchanged.
    Revised NIM for South Australia and Northern Territory indicated improvement in the net outflow estimate of 5,671 and 7,886 respectively, while Tasmania’s net inflow was upgraded by 5,487.
  • Previously estimated aggregate net outflows over 2016-2022 from Western Australia and Australian Capital Territory were revised upward by 18,482 and 15,488 respectively to net inflows.

Total movements were also revised upwards. A comparison of preliminary and revised NIM between June 2016 and June 2022 indicates an additional 260,000 interstate movers over the six-year period (2.38 million using 2016-based modelling vs 2.64 million using 2021-based modelling). This variation has largely been concentrated in the under 35-year-old age cohorts, indicating younger adults and families (see chart).

These changes to the NIM estimates go a long way to explaining the intercensal difference, with the rebased population in June 2021 showing lower populations in NSW and VIC, limited changes to the QLD population, and upgrades to the populations of SA, WA, TAS, NT and ACT. From a housing market perspective, they also help to explain the relative performance of their capital city residential markets during and subsequent to the COVID pandemic lockdowns.

Importantly, these revisions provide new benchmarks in setting assumptions for interstate migration for the purposes of undertaking state-based population forecasts. If you are in need of up-to-date population forecasts based on the latest available data, contact Rob (rob.burgess@quantifysi.com.au) or Angie (angie.zigomanis@quantifysi.com.au) at Quantify Strategic Insights.