Demographics: Mortality

Population Update

Posted on by Angie Zigomanis

A quick snapshot of the September 2024 National Population data release last week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggests that Australia’s crazy rate of population growth is beginning to moderate.

  • Net overseas migration (NOM) fell to 89,800 in September quarter 2024. Total NOM for the year to September 2024 was 380,000, 29% below the F2023 level of 535,500. Lower arrivals and rising departures both contributed to this reduction. While movements are starting to ‘normalise’, NOM is still tracking to be above pre-COVID levels in FY2025.
  • Some 79,000 persons moved interstate in the quarter, down by 5% on September quarter 2023. Interstate mobility continues to decrease. Low unemployment, tight rental markets and a reduced house price differential between the states have reduced the influence of the traditional drivers of interstate migration. QLD and WA continue to experience net inflows, while VIC has now recorded two (modest) net inflows in the past three quarters. The net outflow from NSW decreased slightly reflecting the diminishing affordability of the destination states of QLD and WA relative to Sydney.
  • The 76,800 registered births in the quarter were the highest quarterly total for some years but were influenced by the timing of registrations in Victoria. Births in the year to September 2024 (291,200) were on par with the prior twelve months (290,900). Australia’s total fertility rate (births per female) was 1.49 in FY2024, having fallen from 1.67 in FY2019. Flat births and further population growth suggest the fertility rate will drop further in FY2025.
  • The number of deaths increased to 51,575 in September quarter 2024, the highest since September quarter 2022 when limited preventative care through COVID lockdowns caused deaths to subsequently spike.

A falling birth rate and rising deaths saw the natural increase fall to 104, 200 in the year to September 2024. This is nearly one quarter below the pre-COVID level of around 140,000 per annum. Deaths are now outpacing births for the first time in Tasmania, which recorded a negative natural increase.

Australia’s population grew by 484,000 in the year to September 2024, dropping below 500,000 per annum for the first time since 2022. NOM has been moderating at a pace slightly faster than suggested by the monthly overseas arrivals and departures data published by the ABS. Nevertheless, NOM for FY2025 is still likely to come in a little above the 320,000 projected by the Centre for Population.

Slowing NOM and population growth will provide some relief for rental markets. However, new dwelling completions are expected to remain below underlying demand over at least the next year or two and this will continue to maintain pressure on rental vacancies.

For further insight into what the implications of population growth nationally and across the states, contact Angie Zigomanis at angie.zigomanis@quantifysi.com.au or Rob Burgess at rob.burgess@quantifysi.com.au

Population Update

Posted on by Quantify

A quick snapshot of the March 2023 National Population data release today shows that population growth continues at its furious pace.

  • Australia recorded a record net overseas migration (NOM) inflow of 152,000 in March quarter 2023. This in turn took annual NOM to 454,000 in the year to March 2023, which is a massive 50% above the previous record of around 300,000 back in 2009. Quarterly NOM has now surpassed 100,000 in four of the past five quarters, after never having been above 100,000 prior.
  • Total interstate movements continue to moderate, down by 8% on March 2022 to 94,000, which is also below the immediate pre-COVID levels. Extremely tight rental markets could be reducing housing options and having an impact on population mobility. Queensland and Western Australia continue to experience net inflows. The other states and territories all experienced a net interstate outflow in the quarter, with the outflows from New South Wales and Victoria having eased somewhat over the past couple of years.
  • Births registered in March quarter 2023 have continued at the lower level that emerged after the post-COVID bounce during calendar 2021. Cost of living pressures could potentially see births take another leg down over the next year or two.
  • Meanwhile, deaths have continued at the higher level that emerged in 2022 and remain above the five-year average. The higher deaths could play out for some time due to the limited preventative care that is likely to have taken place through COVID lockdowns.

Australia’s population grew by 563,000 in the year to March 2023 and national population growth is running above 500,000 per annum for the first time in history. Assuming NOM ends above 450,000 in FY2023 and Treasury’s forecast for NOM of 315,000 remains on target for FY2024, Australia will have completed its post-COVID population ‘catch up’ in the space of a mere two-and-a-half years, with population at June 2024 back where it was expected to be prior to onset of the COVID pandemic. The speed of this reversal has left the housing market flat-footed an unable to respond quickly enough with the consequences now being seen in housing rental markets.

For further insight into what this means for population growth and housing markets nationally and across the states, contact Angie Zigomanis at angie.zigomanis@quantifysi.com.au or Rob Burgess at rob.burgess@quantifysi.com.au