FALLING FERTILITY
While most commentary has put the acceleration in the decline in fertility rates down to cost of living pressures, this is only part of the story.
- Analysis by Quantify Strategic Insights indicates that the decline has been concentrated amongst migrant women, whereas Australian born females have only experienced a modest decline in fertility rates. ABS data shows that the TFR (total fertility rate, or births per woman) of migrant women decreased from 1.59 in 2019 (pre COVID) to 1.34 in 2023, compared to a corresponding decline from 1.73 to 1.69 for Australian-born women.
- The fallout from the COVID lockdowns has played a part in this decline. Despite a surge in overseas migration that has taken numbers back in line with their pre-COVID trajectory, the negative net overseas migration 2020 and 2021 means that there has been a fall in migrant women who have been living in Australia for an extended period and have established themselves into a position where they are ready to have children.
- A recovery in TFR for migrant women is expected to emerge from 2026 as post-COVID migrants establish themselves and move into family formation and higher fertility age cohorts. The total TFR will also subsequently rise, although this may take a little longer in order to offset the impact of the broader decline in the total TFR that has occurred over the long term and more recently due to cost of living pressures.
- A recovery in fertility rates has implications for service delivery. Governments shouldn’t base decisions on assuming the decline in births will continue. Similarly, businesses that operate in the sector should see their market pick up later in the decade.
- There are also implications for the housing market, with families (and particularly migrant families) favouring detached housing, often on new greenfield estates. From a political perspective, the winner of the next Federal Election may be able to claim an improvement in birth rates due to their ‘family friendly’ policies, even though the recovery would have happened anyway.
COVID-related impacts will continue to reverberate through Australia’s demographic profile. For more information on demographic change and its impact, please do not hesitate to contact either Angie Zigomanis at angie.zigomanis@quantifysi.com.au or Rob Burgess at rob.burgess@quantifysi.com.au
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